JD Vance’s Future: Five Ways the MAGA Story Could End

Best case for him? Trump dying dramatically

JD Vance is one heck of a political operator. Man did he spin a great story in the 2024 election around his “hillbilly origins” and the need to pull yourself up by the “bootstraps”.

Governor Walz tried to bring him back to earth by questioning if a “slick Yale student” and hedge fund operative truly represented Midwestern values.

But despite his best efforts, the diligent Vance narrative struck a chord and the election is over.

This is where things get serious for JD Vance. After all, the Yale alumnus will already be looking ahead to 2028 and plotting the best path forward.

Here are five scenarios that could either secure Vance’s spot as the 48th President or leave him and his beard a political footnote.

(Is anyone else getting mighty sick of this photo?)

Scenario 1: Trump Gets His JFK Moment

This is truly the dream for JD Vance. The only way to the top for a Vice-President is past their old boss.

But JD Vance would stand to uniquely benefit from Trump’s timely death. Far more than Kamala Harris would have benefited from Joe Biden’s death. Her old boss just doesn’t have the political capital to be a hero.

However, Trump is an electoral winner, as little as we may like the fact. He’s won primaries, the Electoral College, and now the popular vote.

If Trump were to die heroically—ideally by gunfire or something similarly exciting— then he would become a genuine MAGA martyr. His post-death favorable ratings would likely be brilliant and his administration, now the Vance administration, would see a record level of support.

Vance would have time to be in the top job and use it to cement his role as the carrier of the Trump legacy. He could pull brilliant PR stunts like opening up a statue of Trump or renaming some library after him.

Not only that but Vance could weaponise the backlash against an assassination. He could turn the presidential power against the most convenient enemy (foreign agents, gun safety advocates, Democrats).

It would be the most fitting Trump legacy of all—revenge and retribution against all his political enemies.

And Vance would be set for 2028 (which is of course the end goal).

The Never Trumpers would be even more decimated than they currently are. The other populist figures like DeSantis would have no steam to challenge him and the MAGA leaders could do nothing but stand by their 48th President.

Of course, this all hinges on Trump’s untimely death uniting the base rather than creating new factions.

Scenario 2: Trump Pulls An Elvis

In this less sensational scenario, Trump dies under mundane circumstances, like a heart attack or other health-related issues.

Look, things aren’t as great here. Sure, Trump is dead and Vance gets all the perks of being the interim President.

But there’s no enemy to rally against, no glorious “fight” moment, and no real martyrdom.

Trump’s well-known aversion to healthy habits—remember when White House staff had to sneak vegetables into his meals?—makes this scenario plausible but politically uninspiring.

Vance can probably make it work but he’d be in for a much tougher fight.

Scenario 3: Trump Shuts Up For Once

What if Trump chooses to live out his days in political retirement, declining to endorse anyone for 2028? This would force Vance into a terrible balancing act, trying to unify the MAGA base without explicit support from its founding figure.

It’s what Obama did to Biden back in 2016 when this whole mess started.

And if Trump doesn’t endorse him then all hell breaks loose in 2028 because the primary race becomes about claiming the MAGA mantle.

Vance is widely seen as the heir-apparent which would generally work in his favour. For the same reason, a lack of endorsement from Trump would be a slap in the face and he’d have to be very careful during his campaign.

Taking too much credit, stealing the spotlight or being slightly critical. Those are all things that could earn him the ire of Trump and lead to him endorsing an opponent.

So, Vance would have to contend with the looming specter of Trump along with plenty of new enemies.

Nikki Haley would be back and likely have plenty of ammunition ready after four years of continued Trump nonsense. A diminished but swinging DeSantis could be in play. Vivek Ramaswamy would be yappier than ever and there’s a whole host of other names to consider.

Vance would have the difficult challenge of walking the Trump line between his most extreme Republican foes and the more moderate establishment arm.

However, that MAGA alliance only exists for their strongman Trump. Holding it together without the man himself is a tough ask indeed.

Feel free to check out this article to understand the truth about Trump’s win that he made sure was silenced on election night

Scenario 4: Trump Overlooks His Underling

Trump is not exactly known for his loyalty and there’s already one VP burnt by him. What if Trump turns on Vance and endorses one of his opponents? It’s also not unprecedented (Roosevelt is a famous example) though it is brutal.

How can a VP claim credit for an administration when the President himself is against them? The Senate tiebreak vote is about the only thing the VP has going for them in that situation.

This would be rough for Vance and I’m not sure there’d be a way out of it. He’d need to really invigorate some untapped demographic and build an adjacent popular coalition.

More likely than not, Vance would lean into his most fringe beliefs and build a MAGA dream squad of his own (Charlie Kirk, RFK Jr. and Tucker Carlson come to mind).

But without Trump, Vance is just a one-term senator who had a Netflix film. It’s not exactly the strongest presidential pitch.

Though neither was “loud reality show host” and we all know how that one worked out.

Scenario 5: Trump Implodes

It’s over. The MAGA craziness is finally over because the billionaire felon himself drives it into the ground.

There are plenty of ways Trump could blow up America’s future (though the nuclear codes are the most concerning). And if it does happen, then Vance is in a bit of a political pickle.

After all, being the Vice-President of a broadly unpopular administration is no springboard for the big job. Just ask Kamala Harris.

If the MAGA brand burns, so burns any prospect of a Vance presidency. Shame. I really wanted the Yale student to tell me more about supposed Midwestern values.

What’s Going To Happen?

The next four years are going to be rough for us all (no kidding) but for hillbilly Vance in particular.

He’ll have to navigate Trump’s legacy, maintain the MAGA coalition, and sideline challengers will determine his success in 2028.

No matter what happens, one thing is certain, the 2028 Republican primary will be one for the history books. Here’s hoping the GOP can’t find anyone crazier than Trump.

Famous last words, perhaps.

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About the Author

Leonard Cavallaro is The Biased Journalist, offering critical takes and cutting insights into American politics. Whether deconstructing media narratives or crafting his own biased articles, his work aims to challenge readers to see all sides.

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Unpacking The Article

Now this was a #TeamDemocrat article with a strong anti-Vance and anti-Trump tilt. And of course, the bias swings around regularly.

So in my next article, I’ll be #TeamRepublican which will have a very different feel.

That constant swinging between different viewpoints is what makes this publication so interesting to write (and hopefully to read!)

In the meantime, stay sharp and stay critical. Don’t let me fool you too much.

Yours critically,

Leonard Cavallaro
(The Biased Journalist)